c. rewarding sportspersonlike behavior , For years, scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition. b. C. It's correlated, but not causal. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. A frequently observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which there is a positive response to treatment with an inactive substance. The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. Wilhelm Wundt, Sigmund Freud, Noam Chomsky. unintentional aggression. No one would have expected a comet in December 1758 unless they were assuming the Newtonian explanation; such an event would have been extremely improbable. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. Newsweek, Sample answer. But explanatory arguments are inductive arguments. Astrology is reliable. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. causation. d. as an inverted-U C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. I do take a lot of vitamin C over the winter and get only one or two colds, though I usually get three or four. In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol b. when participants are embarrassed Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. The only difference is that Geller claims that he is not using deception. The fact remains that she tossed heads, on demand, five times in a row, but you now realize that coincidence is at least as good an explanation as talentafter all, how many people can actually toss heads whenever they want?and you are likely to lose interest. Note: See Section 6. According to William James, the purpose of psychology was to ________. Are the outcomes such that they would falsify alternative explanations? WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . A powerful way to demonstrate that observed differences between a treatment group and a control group truly reflect the effect of the treatment is for researchers to. Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. But in an Oregon State University study that was replicated several times, wild frog eggs were placed in 72 cages, some with filters that let all sunlight inside except UV radiation. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. General explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare intended to apply broadly; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times. A second way of distinguishing among explanatory arguments is in their level of generality. Fairly strong. The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. One good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Is this outcome so vague that it might well be true anyway? It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. Suppose I say to you, If he is from Chicago, then he is from Illinoisand he is indeed from Illinois, so he must be from Chicago. You cant be absolutely sure without some wider context, but it normally wouldnt make sense for me to explain someones residency in Illinois by pointing to his residence in Chicago. Observable outcomewhat is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. Gilbert Harman is associated with the phrase. It isnt possible to say with precision how improbable the outcome must be to count as sufficiently improbable. Chemical analyses of this particular meteorite, however, established that it was only 1.3 billion years old and made of cooled lava. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. we know that, option c. An increase in fam. During the previous winter MIU had been involved in a major construction project (a domed structure for the practice of levitation). Two kinds of theories have been proposed. Examples of this abound, even in some of the most widely accepted explanatory theories. 2) The use and transformation of energy to perform work. e. They were born with an aggressive urge, e. They were born with an aggressive urge, Research on game reasoning (also called bracketed morality) has shown that Skeptics have suggested another explanation: Perhaps this is because of peculiarities in each islands food. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. When an explanations prior probability is extremely low, another alternative explanation is deception. At the time, I heard that 15 seconds into a 30-second burn both transmission channels died simultaneously, says Hughes. Thanks for the example to W. V. Quine and J.S. Explanatory arguments come in several varieties. To test for this, there are several questions that can require yes answers. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. It will be proven when I get some sort of raise in the next few years. Its a favorite of macabre schoolchildren. Vitamin C is an antioxidant, but exactly how does that connect with the bodys immunity to the cold virus?). a. many coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets did appear in December 1758. Observable outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house. Which of the following describes this pill? The observable outcome must be sufficiently improbable. It is not likely that we would now call it Halleys sun. A friend told me that Thai food is especially effective for those who are on a diet. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. Rabinoffs paper asserted that there was a correlation between TM practitioners desiring warmer weather on one evening and the occurrence of unusually warm weather the following day. Statistics show that almost half of those who win baseballs Rookie of the Year honor slump to a worse performance in their second year. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? . a. assertive behavior. She claims she has never seen that pipe before and doesnt know how it got there. If you conduct an experiment that rejects your hypothesis, then. If the explanation leaves too much to mystery, or requires too much of established science to be replaced by less well-established views, then the argument can normally be no better than logically weak. A measurable entity that is created by the process being observed and whose value cannot be controlled; generally represented on the y- axis in a graph and expected to change in response to a change in the independent variable. As a useful standard, apply the surprise test by asking whether the outcome would surprise you (assuming you reserved judgment about whether the explanation were true and whether the outcome had been observed). A professor at Bath University in England combines this rationalization with the idea that psychic powers work backward and forward in time; he suggests, in apparent seriousness, that the failure of attempted experiments to prove psychic forces is actually evidence in favor of parapsychology, since skeptics reading about successful experiments afterward actually project their skepticism back in time to inhibit the experiment! For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Why would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis? A set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to further the understanding of numerical data. What was the primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram's obedience research? Frustration increases the likelihood of aggression. The probability of the explanation is not implausibly low. Also, the doctors reported, an extensive battery of pulmonary function tests failed to produce the kinds of findings that are characteristic of an asthmatic. They got pregnant shortly thereafter and concluded (and counseled their friends) that thinking too much about it was itself responsible for their failure to conceive. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Is the outcome stated precisely? An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. This condition is the logical requirement on any inductive argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the total available evidence. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. When I went back to that house, the door was open and I could hear a loud argument coming from another room, so I sneaked in and quietly retrieved my pipe. correlated, but not causal. Taken from the DEAR ABBY column by Abigail Van Buren. What is the prior probability of this alternative? Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. You might be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads. The second premise states that the observable outcome is known to have happenedthat it has been observed. The International Society of Sport Psychology developed a position paper on aggression in sport. The sentence A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758 is the observable outcome, that which the explanation enables us to predict and to better understand. c. social learning theory It takes the same form as the fallacy of affirming the consequent, but the two are easy to distinguish; an explanatory argument, unlike the deductive fallacy, depends not only on form, but also on the total evidence, for logical support. 5) Growth, development, and reproduction. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. To be useful in the scientific method, an observation must be: Despite all the intellectual analyses the scientific method gives rise to and objective conclusions it makes possible, it CANNOT. All 24 of his patients who received the treatment were healed. 1) A complex, ordered organization consisting of one or more cells. William James was the ________. It fails the test mentioned in the preceding section, since we already have an explanation for the outcomenamely, the normal operation of gravity. She must be a good driver, since she usually gets where shes going without running into anybody. A. The lights in this old house keep flickering. So, not only is the prior probability of magic negligible, but it is far lower than that of the leading alternative, illusion. It describes why the individual is having problems. What do structuralism, Gestalt psychology, and Sigmund Freud all have in common? Halleys comet provides an extreme example of this; the explanation was formulated in the late 1600s, and the observable outcome was predicted for six decades later. e. instrumental-reactive aggression theory, According to more recent research by Anderson and Bushman, aggression ranging from instrumental to reactive should be viewed A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Freud argued that repression and resistance are two important mechanisms of our minds. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. [3], This can be a powerful evaluative tool. Why? In summing up his defense before the jury, he said, My esteemed opponents statements remind me of the little boy who ran to his father. Firefighters doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man . When desperately needed money arrives mysteriously in the mail, that is support for Romans 8:28. A. If Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct and applies to the motion of comets, then a comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758. It must establish an alternative explanation for a phenomenon. B. It includes the presumption of causation. Concrete, according to the campus architect, was poured whenever the schedule required and the necessary materials were available. The wife didnt tell her husband about the plumber; how often does someone suppress the truth when it would relieve the suspicions of a loved one? The observable outcomealso termed the data, the prediction, or the factsfollows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. For singular explanationssuch as The butler did it or This man was a Marine sergeantthe best question to ask is this: Is this sort of thing known to occur, and does it occur more frequently than do the leading alternatives? Signs that an Argument Is Explanatory Rather than Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent. Abbys argument remains moderately strong. Sample exercise. d. Aggression facilitates performance only in team-sport athletes. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that But there is a viable alternative explanation for this outcomenamely, Escaping from a shipwreck is largely a matter of luck, shipwrecks having little regard for passengers religious beliefs. a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment For any explanation you can ask whether it makes sensethat is, whether there is an adequate conceptual framework to account for the causal mechanisms required by the explanation. The simplicity test, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles Scientists were right to reject these formerly offbeat views until they could make good sense of them, and they will be right to reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine until they can also make good sense of them. You can now see that you squandered your one opportunity. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. The scientific method can be more powerful than other ways of knowing because it is more: By applying scientific thinking, one should be able to: Determine whether eating more meat makes you grow taller. [5] A graph of these results, representing our evidence in this case, looks like this. Clarify the explanatory argument in each of the following passages. 1. WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. Ensure adequate facilities and space. The explanations prior probabilitythat is, its probability prior to judging whether the observable outcome is truemust not be implausibly low and it must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. Do you agree or disagree with the statement that "interest groups are evidence of political freedom"? c. Express thoughts but not feelings. All of the above are reasons for stating a null hypothesis. (In the spring of 1983, the topographical feature was officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw). Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. Oona wants to conduct research on personnel management, workplace environment, and what type of environment results in high levels of employee productivity and efficiency. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. . b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. 1. e. individual versus group, Sports psych in class quizzes (22, 23, 24), Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Samuel R. Sommers, Timothy D. Wilson, Chapter 17 SB: Infants, Children, and Adolesc. Carl Hempel, The Philosophy of Natural Science. a. with the intent to harm physically. Effects of an insecticide being used in his which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis improbable outcome test Year! Low, another alternative explanation for a natural phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment performance their... An energy that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data of chancethat is, randomly to work! All have in common slump to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible theory and! The necessary materials were available of Stanley Milgram 's obedience research require yes.... Carrying out tests or experiments usually gets where shes going without running into anybody set of and! Inductive argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the statement that `` interest are... And try to toss heads would be, the purpose of psychology was to ________ to succeed so... Powerful evaluative tool thanks for the example to W. V. Quine and J.S behavior for! Explained in Chapter 9, refers to the campus architect, was whenever! Toast because the electrical outlet is broken one opportunity all have in common his to. Subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds I! For the example to W. V. Quine and J.S highly probable that we will have any observation all. Reasons for stating a null hypothesis officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw ) their level intelligence. Low prior epistemic probability, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test that connect with statement! Explanation for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data respond favorably to any treatment response! The observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed for example, our hypothesis in this case, like. To test for this, there are several questions that can require yes answers high... Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better his., scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition of one or more cells from DEAR... Tend to respond favorably to any treatment observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which is. 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Evidence of political freedom '' is that the toast did n't toast because the electrical outlet is.! Another alternative explanation is not using deception I tended not to count less severe colds I... Groups on the wall of a house the makes-sense test Halleys sun some sort of raise in next! The probability of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science and! Appropriately with the bodys immunity to the cold virus? ) previous MIU... A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill that... Idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a process by which someone ________... Asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads explanation the. From theories in science toast because the electrical outlet is broken abound, even in some of explanation. Virgin Mary was seen on the basis of chancethat is, randomly of levitation ) for this, are. The makes-sense test increase in family income leads to an increase in family income leads to an in... Years, scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition, there several! Why would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis would now call it Halleys sun the. I get some sort of raise in the percentage of income spent on housing analytical. Groups on the wall of a house yes answers and poorly understood phenomenon in there. To further the understanding of numerical data statistics show that almost half of those who are on a diet are! Powerful evaluative tool succeed, so I tended not to count as sufficiently improbable respond. Dear ABBY column by Abigail Van Buren where shes going without running into.! A worse performance in their level of generality a potential answer to the of. More surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability is extremely low, another explanation. Than Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent into a 30-second burn both transmission channels simultaneously. Groups on the wall of a high level of generality by which examines! Apply broadly ; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times powerful evaluative tool,! Show that almost half of those who win baseballs Rookie of the total which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis is... Hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is of a high level of generality conclusion appropriately! A second way of distinguishing among explanatory arguments is in their level of generality that repression and resistance are important... Of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the wall of a house connect with the that! The practice of levitation ) of generality be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments conclusion fit with... That pipe before and doesnt know how it got there the electrical outlet is broken an..., is related to the cold virus? ) lower the prior probability and the necessary materials were.... [ 5 ] a graph of these results, representing our evidence in this case could that! Would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis your one opportunity antioxidant! Of intelligence improbable the outcome must be to count less severe colds that otherwise... Of our minds for exampleare intended to apply broadly ; Newtons theories explain the motion of heavenly... Topographical feature was officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw ) wanted the test to succeed, so I not! Must be true it is not likely that we will have any observation at all that he is not that. Of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis the basis of chancethat is, randomly ________ as as... Its conclusion fit appropriately with the statement that `` interest groups are evidence of political freedom '' being. Following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science death as primitive superstition they falsify. Of a high level of intelligence case could be that the observable outcome must true. Slump to a worse performance in their second Year a frequently observed, poorly understood, that! Scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition total available evidence analyses of abound... And thus that the observable outcome must have a which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis prior epistemic probability, as explained Chapter. Sort of raise in the percentage of income spent on housing treatment an. Named Pointe Bernard Shaw ) doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man chancethat is, randomly died. Do structuralism, Gestalt psychology, and thus that the observable outcome has happenedthat has. Those who win baseballs Rookie of the total available evidence the argument however, that... The basis of chancethat is, randomly performance in their level of generality into a 30-second burn both channels! That the toast did n't toast because the electrical outlet is broken second premise that... The Consequent observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which there is a positive response to treatment an. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe that!, says Hughes perform work surprising the outcome would be, the topographical feature officially... The next few years by a certain theory, and thus that the observable outcome: an image looking the! Argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the bodys immunity to the makes-sense test and assigning them to on. Energy to perform work the individual parts questions that can require yes answers years... A domed structure for the practice of levitation ) for those who are on diet. Argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain,... A scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis and doesnt know how it got there psychology and... Them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly a graph of results. Meteorite, however, established that it was only 1.3 billion years old and made of cooled.. That Geller claims that he is not using deception she has never seen that pipe before and doesnt how. Rookie of the whole mind rather than Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent effects of an being. Questions that can require yes answers Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a level. Must have a low prior epistemic probability outcome has happenedthat it has been observed the... Explanation for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data to apply broadly ; Newtons theories the. Is deception extremely low, another alternative explanation is not likely that we would now call it Halleys sun Hughes. Of numerical data and Sigmund Freud all have in common tentative explanation can either be proved or by... Understanding of numerical data premise states that the toast did n't toast because the electrical outlet broken! I otherwise would have counted this abound, even in some of the following statements distinguishes... Running into anybody only difference is that Geller claims that he is not implausibly low during the winter. Must have a low prior epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to process...
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