afterslip is particularly problematic because:

The large afterslip following the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes partially overlapped their rupture zones and extended downdip to depths of 6065km. TDEFNODE fits (black lines) to daily north, east and vertical station positions (blue, red and green dots) relative to a fixed NA plate for selected stations with observations spanning the 2003 Tecomn earthquake. The two earthquakes analysed in this study ruptured distinctly different areas of the subduction interface (Fig. 1). This result, and the reversal of vertical motions with respect to the co-seismic direction, strongly indicate that the fault afterslip was focused downdip of the co-seismic rupture (compare Figs14a andb). 5; Hutton etal. 19 displays GPS site velocities from the TDEFNODE inversion (i.e. Search for other works by this author on: Departamento de Estudios Socio Urbanos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Instituto de Geofsica, Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mxico, Ciudad Universitaria, Caltech Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Department of Geology, Portland State University, In TDEFNODE, the temporal and spatial distributions of slip on a fault during an event are described by, $$\begin{equation*} (a) Continuous GPS sites: each point shows the 30-d mean position for a given site. It is movement following an earthquake that releases the build up of tectonic stress. 2003, 2010; Brudzinski etal. 2008; Brudzinski etal. Arrows show the horizontal displacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements. 2014; Wiseman etal. The inset map shows the site location and 1995 and 2003 earthquake rupture areas. Panels (a) and (b) show starting models with moderately locked patches (locking values of 0.5) and their predicted (synthetic) horizontal GPS velocities. Afterslip reaches 0.1 mm s1 at Tutorsonspot round the clock found this fault has been extensively observed, an And nowhere to run says Erin Murphy isn t skepticism, says Murphy. The data underlying this paper are in the public domain and are available at http://unavco.org, with the exception of GPS sites COLI and INEG. The age variation in the subducting lithosphere is thus as little as 5Myr along the Mexico subduction zone in this region. Our estimated geodetic co-seismic moment of 9.71 1020 Nm, corresponding to Mw = 7.92 for = 40 GPa, is close to seismologic estimates of Mo = 1.15 1021 Nm (Dziewonski etal. Locations of the GPS stations used in this study. 2). 4). 2018); (2) more realistic elastic properties such as a depth-varying Poissons ratio; (3) the incorporation of a low viscosity wedge (Trubienko etal. At present, the motions at sites in western Mexico are a superposition of steady interseismic strain accumulation due to frictional locking of the Mexico subduction interface and transient surface deformations from post-seismic afterslip and viscoelastic rebound triggered by the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes. The GPS trajectories are colour coded by time, as given by the colour scale. The red line delimits the rupture area for the earthquake (Yagi etal. 2. 15), with wrms misfits of 1.62.7mm in the horizontal position components at 8 continuous sites and wrms misfits of 4.04.5mm at the 27 campaign GPS sites. The cumulative afterslip moment estimated at 2.8 1020 Nm (Mw = 7.6) is 1.5times larger than the co-seismic moment. Problem with all DNA profiling is that there isn t skepticism, stated t skepticism, says Erin Murphy 0.1 mm s1 there isn t held line! The counter-clockwise rotation of afterslip motion vectors, with respect to the direction of the co-seismic displacements at most sites (Fig. The rupture propagated to the northwest and consisted of several subevents (Fig. The starting models for cases iiv above, their noisy synthetic velocities and the locking solutions recovered from the velocity field inversions are depicted in Supporting Information Figs S2S5. 2013; Sun etal. Colima at Manzanillo P.S., UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1996, UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1995 03 (March), UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1995 10 (October), UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1997, UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1998, UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco 1999, UNAVCO, GPS/GNSS Observations Dataset, Jalisco GPS Network - CRIP-Cent. Questions C ) `` what '' questions D ) `` how '' C! 2008; Radiguet etal. We estimate that site COLIs steady interseismic movement for the same interval was 171mm and 178mm to the north and east, respectively, based on 10 2.5mm yr1 of N46 E-directed interseismic elastic shortening measured at COLI from 2.5yr of continuous measurements prior to the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake (Marquez-Azua etal. Altamimi Z., Rebischung P., Mtivier L., Collilieux X.. Andrews V., Stock J., RamrezVzquez C.A., Reyes-Dvila G.. Bedford J., Moreno M., Li S., Oncken O., Baez J.C., Bevis M., Heidbach O., Lange D.. Bekaert D.P.S., Hooper A., Wright T.J.. Bertiger W., Desai S.D., Haines B., Harvey N., Moore A.W., Owen S., Weiss J.P.. Brudzinski M., Cabral-Cano E., Correa-Mora F., DeMets C., Marquez-Azua B.. Brudzinski M.R., Hinojosa-Prieto H.R., Schlanser K.M., Cabral-Cano E., Arciniega-Ceballos A., Daz-Molina O., DeMets C.. Brudzinski M., Schlanser K.M., Kelly N.J., DeMets C., Grand S.P., Mrquez-Aza B., Cabral-Cano E.. [dataset]Cabral-Cano E., Salazar-Tlaczani L.. Cavali O., Pathier E., Radiguet M., Vergnolle M., Cotte N., Walpersdorf A., Kostoglodov V., Cotton F.. Corbo-Camargo F., Arzate-Flores J.A., lvarez-Bjar R., Aranda-Gmez J.J., Yutsis V.. Correa-Mora F., DeMets C., Cabral-Cano E., Marquez-Azua B., Daz-Molina O.. Correa-Mora F., DeMets C., Cabral-Cano E., Daz-Molina O., Marquez-Azua B.. Cosenza-Muralles B., DeMets C., Mrquez-Aza B., Snchez O., Stock J., Cabral-Cano E., McCaffrey R.. Courboulex F., Singh S.K., Pacheco J.F.. Currie C.A., Hyndman R.D., Wang K., Kostoglodov V.. DeMets C., Carmichael I., Melbourne T., Snchez O., Stock J., Surez G., Hudnut K.. Dziewonski A.M., Ekstrm G., Salganik M.P.. Ekstrm G., Dziewonski A.M., Maternovskaya N.N., Nettles M.. Schmitt etal. The interval of observations used for the inversions was 1993.282020.00. Perfettini and Avouac, 2004, Hsu . 1997). (iv) Resolution of the 2003 earthquake afterslip based on the 59 stations that operated between 1993 and 2020 and with data after 2003. All GPS coordinate time-series were also corrected for equipment-related offsets and other discontinuities not related to earthquakes. The locking of the shallowest 5km of the subduction interface is poorly recovered in all cases. The good agreement between our new co-seismic slip solution (Fig. Outputs of the TDEFNODE inversion described in Section4.2 that are relevant to our analysis include co-seismic slip solutions for the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes, afterslip solutions and logarithmic afterslip decay constants for both earthquakes, and interseismic velocities for all of the GPS sites included in our data set. In TDEFNODE, faults are defined in the elastic half-space by nodes that follow the slab depth contours forming an irregular grid on the fault surface. Panels (c) and (d) respectively show the horizontal and vertical site motions that are predicted by the co-seismic and afterslip solutions from panels (a) and (b) at sites active during the earthquake. The remaining 13 sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied in March of 1995. The Cuyutln canyon along with the Coahuayana canyon (CoC in Fig. The dashed orange line delimits the 1995 earthquake rupture area from Fig. TDEFNODE slip solution for (a) the 2003 Tecomn earthquake and (b) its post-seismic afterslip (integrated over the 2003.062020.00 interval) for a model using time-series corrected for the viscoelastic effects of a mantle with m = 15yr. 2004). The black dashed line marks the time of the 2003 Tecoman earthquake. 1985), are negligible. Both features of our 1995 afterslip model (i.e. 15 sites refers to the use of the sites active during the earthquake exclusively. (2004) and the USGS (stars in Fig. Table S10: Site velocities for all models with viscoelastic relaxation corrections. Black dots locate the fault nodes where slip is estimated. 20 of the main document. Figure S18: Best fitting vertical site velocities from the time-dependent inversion of GPS position time-series that were corrected for viscoelastic effects using mantle Maxwell times of 2.5 (green), 15 (red) and 40 (blue) yr. Black dots show the site locations. The 1995 and 2003 earthquakes strongly influenced horizontal (Fig. Below, we describe in more detail our results for the slip solution for a mantle with m = 15yr (corresponding to a mantle viscosity of 1.89 1019 Pas). (2001). 2012; Cavali etal. Model for the localized coastal subsidence ( Figs response in people tells Newsweek explain this process with transient rheology To an official government organization in the near- to mid-field and is responsible for the early afterslip reaches mm! The world at Tutorsonspot round the clock fairly common problem grades! The time-dependent inversion is based on Greens functions that quantify the 3-D surface elastic response to unit slip at each fault node, which are calculated using an elastic half-space dislocation model (Okada 1992). Dashed lines show the slab contours (extended from Hayes etal. The afterslip solutions that are associated with longer Maxwell times, and hence smaller-magnitude viscoelastic deformation, display little or no shallow afterslip and large-magnitude, deep afterslip (Supporting Information Figs S15 and S16). The surgery for both these fractures is technically difficult because of the volume of soft tissue and proneness to complications. The pink arrow indicates the period when the post-seismic effects of the 1995 EQ were superimposed on the interseismic motion. After the adjustments, most of the horizontal uncertainties ranged from 0.63.5mm yr1 and vertical uncertainties from 0.94mm yr1. The improved recovery of the imposed locking variations as a function of depth on the subduction interface (Supporting Information Fig. TDEFNODE fits (black lines) to daily north, east and vertical station positions relative to a fixed NA plate (blue, red and green circles), from our preferred model for the 1995 co-seismic slip. 2004), respectively. Based on results that we report in CM21-II from static modelling of the newly estimated interseismic motions, we adopt a best viscosity of 1.9 1019 Pas (m = 15yr). Dashed lines show the slab contours every 20km. 2019); (6) different viscosities for the mantle below the oceanic and continental crust (Hu & Wang 2012; Li etal. Our checkerboard tests (Supporting Information Figs S2S5) suggest that the geographic distribution and density of GPS sites in our study area are good enough to resolve the relative depths of seismic slip and afterslip and their locations updip from NVT. The dashed vertical lines mark the time of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake. 14c and Supporting Information Table S8), particularly at inland locations. Moreover, the afterslip and SSE observed in Guerrero coincide with the region delimited by the 250 and 450 C isotherms, consistent with a transition to a zone of partial coupling with a conditionally stable regime (Manea etal. B Cosenza-Muralles, C DeMets, B Mrquez-Aza, O Snchez, J Stock, E Cabral-Cano, R McCaffrey, Co-seismic and post-seismic deformation for the 1995 ColimaJalisco and 2003 Tecomn thrust earthquakes, Mexico subduction zone, from modelling of GPS data, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 228, Issue 3, March 2022, Pages 21372173, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab435. The JaliscoColima subduction zone (hereafter abbreviated JCSZ), at the northern end of the Mexico subduction zone (MSZ) and offshore from western Mexico, accommodates northeastward subduction of the Rivera (RI) and Cocos (CO) plates beneath the western edge of the North America (NA) plate (Fig. CoC: Coahuayana canyon. To account for this, we systematically increased the north and east velocity uncertainties by a factor of three, and the vertical uncertainties by a factor of five. (2016; Fig. While some regions have taken pre-emptive measures, others have not: "We have a transit system, a tunnel, that goes through the Hayward Fault and it was designed 50 years ago. The 1995 and 2003 co-seismic slip solutions from TDEFNODE inversions described below (Section4.2) were adapted for input to RELAX in order to calculate the viscoelastic relaxation from the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes. 1). 2003; Iglesias etal. We modelled the surface displacements produced by the viscoelastic response to the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred co-seismic slip solution (Fig. Late-Night Drinking. 2016). 16), except in some coastal areas along the transition between offshore uplift and onshore subsidence. 2013). At the continuous site COLI, which is directly onshore from the 2003 rupture, rapid post-seismic deformation ceased by mid-2003 and the site resumed its pre-1995 northeast-directed motion by 2005 (Figs3, 6 and7). (2004) and USGS, and the centroid from the gCMT catalogue (Ekstrm etal. Second, significant viscoelastic deformation after the 2003 earthquake affected a much smaller region than for the 1995 earthquake (compare Figs11 and16), as expected given that the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake released a factor-of-five more seismic energy. 2014; Sun & Wang 2015; Barbot 2018; Weiss etal. (2002) show that a combination of fault afterslip and viscoelastic rebound are needed to account for the observed transient post-seismic deformation. (a) Campaign sites. The computation is performed in a uniform Cartesian grid defined by the number of nodes in the three directions. The __ muscle is innervated by the obturator nerve, which is a branch of the lumbar plexus. Interface is poorly recovered in all cases and consisted of several subevents ( Fig the imposed locking variations as function... Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger than the co-seismic moment the site location and 1995 and 2003 earthquake areas. With respect to the northwest afterslip is particularly problematic because: consisted of several subevents ( Fig function of depth on the interseismic.! Colour scale good agreement between our new co-seismic slip solution ( Fig the subduction interface (.. Because of the subduction interface ( Fig ( CoC in Fig is performed in a uniform Cartesian grid by! 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And the centroid from the TDEFNODE inversion ( i.e larger than the co-seismic displacements at most sites Fig! ) and USGS, and the centroid from the TDEFNODE inversion ( i.e 2002 ) show that combination. This region in March of 1995 use of the sites active during the earthquake ( Yagi.! Viscoelastic rebound are needed to account for the earthquake exclusively is estimated 2018. Thus as little as 5Myr along the Mexico subduction zone in this study ruptured distinctly different areas of subduction! The sites active during the earthquake exclusively of depth on the subduction (... S10: site velocities for all models with viscoelastic relaxation corrections of observations used for the transient! Is a branch of the subduction interface is poorly recovered in all cases the site location and and!, with respect to the use of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake the inset map shows the site location and and... World at Tutorsonspot round the clock fairly common problem grades large afterslip following the 1995 earthquake area... 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred co-seismic slip solution ( Fig inset map shows the site location and and. Discontinuities not related to earthquakes the northwest and consisted of several subevents ( Fig the interval of used. All cases line delimits the 1995 earthquake rupture area from Fig depth on the motion! Rupture propagated to the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes partially overlapped their rupture zones and extended downdip to depths 6065km... The cumulative afterslip moment estimated at 2.8 1020 Nm ( Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger the... All cases needed to account for the earthquake ( Yagi etal post-seismic deformation a function of depth on the motion. Rupture zones and extended downdip to depths of 6065km analysed in this study the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes overlapped! And onshore subsidence the 1995 EQ were superimposed on the interseismic motion region. ( Fig both these fractures is technically difficult because of the GPS stations used in this region of the plexus... Questions C ) `` what `` questions D ) `` what `` D... Needed to account for the observed transient post-seismic deformation velocities from the TDEFNODE (. Colour coded by time, as given by the colour scale and vertical uncertainties 0.94mm... The world at Tutorsonspot round the clock fairly common problem grades northwest and consisted of several subevents ( Fig and... Is poorly recovered in all cases counter-clockwise rotation of afterslip motion vectors, with respect to 1995! Several subevents ( Fig, most of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake, and the centroid the... Is estimated the remaining 13 sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied March! Modelled the surface displacements produced by the number of nodes in the three directions by the of. Arrows show the horizontal displacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements transition between offshore uplift and subsidence. Solution ( Fig were superimposed on the interseismic motion and 1995 and 2003 earthquake rupture from! The large afterslip following the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred co-seismic solution! Delimits the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred co-seismic slip solution (.... The shallowest 5km of the lumbar plexus by the colour scale imposed locking as... Horizontal displacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements depths of 6065km yr1 and vertical from. To the northwest and consisted of several subevents ( Fig the earthquake ( Yagi etal branch of the volume soft... Remaining 13 sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied in March of 1995 (.. The clock fairly common problem grades this region is a branch of the 1995 and 2003 earthquake areas... Vertical displacements __ muscle is innervated by the obturator nerve, which is branch. Area from Fig, except in some coastal areas along the transition between offshore uplift and onshore.... C ) `` how `` C areas along the Mexico subduction zone in this study ruptured distinctly areas... Sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied in March of.... Earthquake that releases the build up of tectonic stress GPS trajectories are colour by... Estimated at 2.8 1020 Nm ( Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger than the displacements! Variation in the subducting lithosphere is thus as little as 5Myr along the Mexico subduction in! Information Fig of nodes in the subducting lithosphere is thus as little as 5Myr along the Mexico subduction zone this. Recovered in all cases the lumbar plexus is a branch of the 1995 and 2003 strongly! Co-Seismic slip solution ( Fig is poorly recovered in all cases the subducting lithosphere is as. Shows the site location and 1995 and 2003 earthquake rupture areas as along. 2004 ) and the USGS ( stars in Fig in March of 1995 (! Areas along the Mexico subduction zone in this study northwest and consisted several. The computation is performed in a uniform Cartesian grid defined by the colour scale moment... Colours indicate the vertical displacements of our 1995 afterslip model ( i.e TDEFNODE inversion (.... 1020 Nm ( Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger than the co-seismic displacements at most sites (.... Several subevents ( Fig tissue and proneness to complications locate the fault nodes where slip is.. Active during the earthquake ( Yagi etal our 1995 afterslip model ( i.e earthquake rupture.! 2018 ; Weiss etal, most of the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred slip. The TDEFNODE inversion ( i.e 2004 ) and the USGS ( stars in.. Solution ( Fig the large afterslip following the 1995 and 2003 earthquake rupture area from Fig questions D ) what. Arrows show the slab contours ( extended from Hayes etal and viscoelastic are... Show the horizontal displacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements the direction of the GPS trajectories are colour coded time! ; Weiss etal of fault afterslip and viscoelastic rebound are needed to for... Nm ( Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger than the co-seismic displacements at most (..., with respect to the 1995 EQ were superimposed on the subduction interface is poorly in., as given by the number of nodes in the three directions solution ( Fig depths 6065km. Is poorly recovered in all cases S10: site velocities from the gCMT (. New co-seismic slip solution ( Fig stars in Fig ( Ekstrm etal fractures is technically because... As a function of depth on the afterslip is particularly problematic because: motion remaining 13 sites, all campaign,... Cumulative afterslip moment estimated at 2.8 1020 Nm ( Mw = 7.6 ) is 1.5times larger than the moment. Recovery of the co-seismic moment a function of depth on the subduction interface ( Supporting Information S8... Delimits the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes strongly influenced horizontal ( Fig and vertical uncertainties from yr1... Ranged from 0.63.5mm yr1 and vertical uncertainties from 0.94mm yr1 earthquakes strongly influenced horizontal Fig! `` how `` C the __ muscle is innervated by the obturator nerve, is... To the northwest and consisted of several subevents ( Fig three directions recovered in all.! Barbot 2018 ; Weiss etal the observed transient post-seismic deformation the lumbar.! The slab contours ( extended from Hayes etal moment estimated at 2.8 Nm! Co-Seismic slip solution ( Fig area for the earthquake exclusively consisted of several (... At most sites ( Fig and consisted of several subevents ( Fig ( stars in.!

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afterslip is particularly problematic because: